Weekly Review: 29/10 – 4/11

Weekly Review: 29/10-4/11

The full breakdown of bets and how they did will be made up of weekly blog posts (like this one), whilst tracking of success over the course of the season will be followed on the Profit/Loss page.

For the sake of clarity, wagering has been calculated as £100 per point staked. Please gamble responsibly – decide what your 1pt stake is and try not to stray from it. This way you can easily keep track of your profits and losses, whilst also ensuring you don’t try to win back your lost money irresponsibly.

The second week of the NBA season signalled the start of the NBA Tipster tipping service in earnest. Sure there have been predictions and tips for futures bets over the past month, but what will be the bread and butter of the site will be the match tips. The decision was made to sit out the first few games of the season due to their highly unpredictable nature due to teams being rusty and it not really being possible to gauge their true ability so early on.

The first tip of the 2018-19 NBA season was for the New Orleans Pelicans to beat the +2.5 handicap against the Portland Trail Blazers. For much of the game the Pelicans kept the score close, but the loss of star man Anthony Davis and the fatigue of a back-to-back proved too much for them in the final quarter of the game – eventually losing by 13 points to Portland. Our first tip was a losing one.

Next up was the selection of Dario Saric not to be able to hit his 6.5 rebound line in Philadelphia’s Saturday afternoon game against Detroit. Saric entered the game averaging over seven boards per game, but it was hard to see him replicating that form against the dominant front court duo of Griffin and Drummond. Thankfully this proved to be the case – Saric struggle offensively and defensively against the Pistons and only managed to pull down four rebounds in the game. At 5/4, we had our first winning tip!

Later the same evening, the Celtics faced the Pacers in Indiana. It looked a low scoring affair on paper – Boston struggling to shoot the ball so far this season and the Pacers playing at the slowest pace in the league – and it proved to be just that. However, not daring to go with the total score under 207.5 or 205.5 we sided with backing the total points scored in the game to be between 212 and 222 points. Unfortunately, the game lived up to what was expected and more and only 203 points were scored by both teams combined. The Pacers and Celtics both shot poorly, shooting 41.4% and 43.2% respectively. Lesson learned: don’t err on the side of caution, go with your gut!

The final bet of the week saw us take on the over/under line for the Memphis game at Phoenix on Sunday night / Monday morning. It looked a low scoring game on paper due to the slow play style of the Grizzlies and the poor shooting of the Suns. Fortunately that was the case and the bet landed at 11/10. This tip was at shorter odds than I usually go for, but I felt the need to end the first week on a win!

Check out the breakdown of this week’s gambles in spreadsheet form below.

Betting results for week 29/10-4/11.
Betting results for week 29/10-4/11. 9% return on investment on a total of four bets.

Over the four bets this week, there was a return on investment of 9%. Lower than hoped, but not bad considering the 50% win record over the period. With the two losing bets being at the biggest prices, it’s unsurprising the profit margin is pretty skinny. However, this is the benefit of not backing at long odds on prices – you don’t need as a high of a success rate. For example, had only the 100/30 tip landed, we would have still had an ROI of 8% for the week. In my opinion, that’s a hell of a lot more fun and less stressful than the nerves backing 1/2 or 2/7 shots cause!

Anyway, hopefully we can continue to profit through these tips and grow the ROI over the next few weeks. Check out the Profit/Loss page for tracking of overall profits over the course of the season.

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